G.e.t 🤚 E.B.O.O.K.S Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

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Review : NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER “A provocative read...There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles , who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well. A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years. In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead. Read more

 

Review : ”Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order,” by Ray Dalio, explains why the United States succeeded in becoming the dominant country in the world. It also explains why the United States is in decline, and more ominously, why Communist China is ascending. Dalio’s book is refreshingly free of the ideological biases that often distort an explanation like this. Typically one blames what is universally deplored on what one personally dislikes. Howard Ruff’s “How to Prosper During the Coming Bad years,” was published in 1979, when everyone was worried about inflation. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R1UE3ODN950AAJ?ref=pf_vv_at_pdctrvw_srp Ruff blamed the stagflation of the late 1970’s on welfare spending (he included Social Security and Medicare as welfare) and the sexual revolution. Most Republicans took the lead of Milton Friedman, and blamed Keynesian economic policies. Republicans had never liked Keynesian economic policies because those policies shifted wealth, power, and prestige from the business community to the government. I blame the stagflation of the 1970’s on rise on the world price of petroleum that followed the OPEC Oil Embargo of 1973, and the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Keynesian economic policies were not designed to respond to the shortage of a natural resource essential the the U.S. economy. Moreover, during the Great Depression the problem was deflation, not inflation. Republicans did not want to blame the OPEC Oil Embargo and the Iranian Revolution because they did not want to admit that foreigners they disliked had considerable control over the U.S. economy, and they did not want to admit that America’s reliance on automobile transportation was a national problem. Ray Dialio sees the growing income gap as a problem. Because he is a self made billionaire investor who has made more money than Howard Ruff knows exists, he his opinions about economic inequality cannot be dismissed as “the politics of envy.” Dialio’s main concern is with the rise of China and the decline of the United States. He also discusses how the Netherlands and Great Britain passed through the same cycle he claims that China and the United States are passing through. He mentions earlier nations which previously dominated the West, or the world. These include Macedonia, Rome, the Arabs, the Mongols, China, and the Ottoman Turks. With the exception of China, these never regained world dominance after they lost it. Dialio claims that dominant nations go through six stages: “Stage 1, when the new order begins and the new leadership consolidates power;” “Stage 2, when the resource – allocation system system and government bureaucracies are built and refined.” In the first two states the people of a soon to become dominant nation interact harmoniously. They work hard, save their money, and stay out of debt personally, and nationally. Those who perform well are rewarded, but economic inequality does not reach high levels. “Stage 3, when there is peace and prosperity.” During this time the descendants of those who lived through the first two stages become less interested in saving money and more interested in spending it, and enjoying life. “Stage 4, when there are great excesses in spending and debt, and the widening of wealth and political gaps.” “Stage 5, when there are very bad financial conditions and intense conflict,” and finally, “Stage 6, when there are civil wars/revolutions.” Dalio believes that China is passing from Stage 2 to Stage 3, and that the United States is in Stage 5. This scenario does not explain the American Revolution and the American Civil War. Neither was preceded by bad economic times. Efforts by the British Parliament to make the colonists pay their share of the costs of the French and Indian War were irritating to the colonists, but not impoverishing. The British victory in the French and Indian War created economic opportunities for the colonists. Similarly, the decade leading up to the American Civil War was not a time of economic decline and distress. Few whites in the North would benefit economically by freeing the slaves. Most whites in the South would benefit economically if the slaves were freed. Family farms in the South could not compete with plantations worked by slaves. Nearly every skilled trade and profession paid less in the slave states than in the free states. Nevertheless, more Americans died during the American Civil War than in all the other wars the United States has fought. The American Revolution and the American Civil War happened for reasons not explained in this book. Moreover, the Netherlands and Great Britain never passed into Stage 6. Nevertheless, Dalio’s postulated sequence does seem to explain what has been happening to China and the United States. China is the only nation that has recovered from national declines. He provides a chart that shows that a cycle happened in each Chinese dynasty. I think another reason the dynasties rose and fell was because of problems inherent with the dynastic principle. Dynasties have been established by men who are charismatic, effective political leaders, and military geniuses. With each generation the man who inherits the throne is likely to be progressively less talented than the man who created it. This is due to a well understood genetic phenomenon called “reversion to the average.” Exceptional characteristics are caused by rare and recessive gene alleles that are unlikely to match in the children of exceptional parents. The Chinese benefit from a characteristic not mentioned in this book. Everywhere they live Chinese tend to be intelligent, obedient to the law, and monogamous. This is true even when they are poor and persecuted. This gives the Chinese nation the ability to recover quickly from the bad decisions of incompetent leaders. It enables them to respond quickly to the good decisions of competent leaders, like they are doing now. This also gives the Chinese nation an advantage over a multi racial country like the United States. We include races with average characteristics not conducive to creating and maintaining successful societies and civilizations. When the United States was ascending, ninety percent of the population was white. Most blacks were restricted to second class citizenship, despite the obvious intentions of the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. While the Chinese are perfecting their meritocracy we are using affirmative action programs to achieve diversity, inclusion, and equity. These in turn advance people to positions where they are unable to perform adequately. While Chinese geneticists are looking for gene alleles that influence intelligence, we pretend that the assertions in “The Bell Curve,” are pseudo science, and that “Race is only a social construct.” Diversity is not our strength: it is the main reason for the political polarization that makes it difficult for us to solve problems that would have been manageable before 1964. Like every sensible American, and unlike the insensible Americans I sometimes encounter on the internet, I hope America avoids a civil war or a revolution. I also expect China to achieve world hegemony by the end of this century, if not sooner. I hope that by the time this happens the Chinese mainland will have adopted a democratic government. The success of democracy in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan persuades me that democracy would work well on the mainland. My love for the Chinese people and culture, although not for the present dictatorship, makes me sanguine about a world dominated by a democratic China.